U.S. Economic Update Portal

Just as fast as the U.S. economy entered recession when the Coronavirus hit us in March, it may have already reached a bottom, but no one is fully certain. Our economic recovery will be slow, as the lingering effects of COVID-19 severely limit growth. I expect a modest rebound by early 2021, but we will still be in a quasi-recession compared to January 2020.

As of the time of this writing, our current unemployment rate fell from about 15% this March, to about 11% this week. I personally expect a slower drift down for the unemployment rate later this year, to maybe 9.5% in the fourth quarter. The unemployment rate however won’t reach Pre-Pandemic levels (3.6%) until about the end of 2023…

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What Is A Prosperous U.S. Economy?

If and when the U.S. Economy is prosperous, you will see the following signs:  full employment, low inflation, slightly weak US Dollar, slowly rising interest rates, slowly rising real estate values, high levels of consumer confidence, moderate levels of consumer savings, low levels of consumer and corporate debt spending, slow reductions in both government spending and the government deficit, equality in foreign trade (few trade imbalances between the U.S. and other countries), productivity improvements in manufacturing, and technology improvements in shipping and corporate operations.

This leads to:

  • Job Creation And Wage Increases
  • Increases In Consumer And Corporate Spending
  • Increases In Property Values And Stock Market Values
  • Robust Corporate Earnings

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RETIREMENT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT, LLC (RPM) is a privately held Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) and Retirement Investment Planner headquartered in ID. Our purpose is to provide retirement account management and estate planning in a conservative (low-risk) portfolio held exclusively at Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. [SIPC/FDIC Insured Bank]. We believe in delivering financial services with honesty, authenticity, and compassion for Americans entering a crucial time in life unprepared.

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Jacob A. Mazone
Chief Financial Officer
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Caldwell, ID 83607
(208) 407-0185
retirement.portfolio@gmail.com

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